The largest exchange in its time Mt. Gox ceased to exist in February 2014. The liquidation procedure soon began and continues to this day. After all issues are resolved, a total of 137891 BTC will be paid to participants of the process. In our opinion, this event is key for the entire Bitcoin ecosystem and will greatly affect its price in the short-term (drawdown) and long-term (stable growth) perspective. Why is this so, but why almost no one talks about it? Read below.
1. The decision on payments was postponed more than once. People are used to this and every time before the next deadline hits, another delay is expected. However, the process is ongoing; many key issues have already been resolved. The number of delays to come, if there are any, is already quite limited.
2. 137891 BTC – is it a lot or a little? This is a 150-day mining volume that will hit the market in a very short time. A huge part of this BTC will be sold: by regular Mt. Gox customers (giant profits compared to 2014) and intermediaries who bought the debt obligations (their task is to do business, not to hold). Natural pressure on the price will be amplified manyfold by the pressure of speculators and a local downtrend. For comparison, since the beginning of the year, 230,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges. After payments, most will come back, payments themselves are supposed to be done to exchange accounts.
3. Mt. Gox payments will be one of the key events at least until the next halving. By pulling down the price in the short term, they will enable stable long-term growth afterwards. Smart money do not FOMO and understand that it is better to buy BTC at a discount. And smart money are often the largest and most influential players in the market.
4. Why are the media silent? Because neither the media nor the other major participants in the ecosystem want retail investors to make money. On the contrary they create a positive background to attract as much new money as possible. There will be a lot of articles and news on the fact of payments and analysis of the price after the fact, but this will not help anyone.
What to do to extract value? First of all – reduce risk and stay alert. The day when you can get Bitcoin at a big discount will definitely come and patience will pay off many times.