In the month since the last analysis, noticeable and significant changes have occurred in the market. First of all, Mt. Gox payouts (which will crush the market one day) were postponed for 3.5 months only. It will restrain stable fundamental growth and long-term consolidation above $10,000 is very unlikely before payments are made and absorbed.
Nevertheless, medium term growth is possible for the following reasons:
1. BTC outflow from the exchanges has slowed down, but continues, which indicates the excess of demand over supply.
2. The influx of stable coin has also slowed down, but continues, which indicates that new fiat is still coming.
3. Buy-sell support of BTC by PayPal can create significant additional demand in the coming weeks / months: more than 300 million users get the opportunity to purchase bitcoin in a convenient way.
Record-low volumes in recent months should not be too worrying – this is a natural process of sellers depletion and the end of the re-accumulation phase. There are no fundamentals for a strong price decline in the medium term. But keep in mind that Mt. Gox payouts front run is likely to happen before actual payouts.
Disclaimer: the results of fundamental market analysis are applicable in the medium and long term (weeks and months) and do not take into account possible short-term price fluctuations and their causes. Medium- and long-term positions are subject to large price fluctuations and require more conservative risk management.
Information in the thread is not financial advice.