The main question: will #BTC continue to rise after 10k breakout or was it actually a fakeout and bull market is done?
Fundamental metrics look as follows:
- Bitcoin inflow to exchanges during 9k -> 12k run totaled 30000 BTC (or ~$330m with average price of 11k). During this time stablecoins inflow totaled >$700m. Means that 9k -> 12k run was backed but strong fiat inflow which is not a short-term speculation.
- Open interest, after a short spike, is back to 9k levels seen during 2-month flat. Means that there is no fuel for further sharp price drop, 12k -> 10.5k is everything that could be squeezed out from liquidations.
- 12k -> 10.5k is solely overleveraged longs liquidation op performed during low liquidity Sunday. Who wants to *actually* sell during low liquidity? >$1bn longs liquidated.
- Fundamental background extremely positive: dollar devalues, all assets benefit. Additionally, green light for USA banks to store crypto is *huge* event still to manifest in price – institutions are slow.
Conclusion: mid-term (before mt. Gox payouts) BTC most likely will continue its growth, Bart back is possible coming days. The worst case – flat for some time (good for alts though).